As can always be said when writing about a small sample: What we have here is something to monitor. May 23, 2011 Atlanta Braves placed RF Jason Heyward on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to May 22, 2011. Hes hit 24 homers the last two years combined. Perhaps the most aggravating trends for Heyward are his propensity to pop the ball up, producing gimme outs, and chop the ball into the ground, failing to make good use of his prodigious power and 6-foot-5, 240 pound frame. The headline raises the red flag right off the bat Im probably making too much of too little. Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10. Efficiency. Jason Heyward opens baseball academy in Chicago from TrueBlueLA.com at 2/4/2023 5:04:00 AM. On Friday, the Cubs won the bidding for Jason Heyward, convincing the outfielder to come to Chicago despite offers for more guaranteed money from the Nationals, the Cardinals, and reportedly. The WAR group, which constitutes the group most closely approximating the quality of the player Jason Heyward is currently, puts Heyward on a Hall of Fame track. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Sort the leaderboards for UBR or Ultimate BaseRunning, and Heyward floats to the top. I looked for outfielders from 1960 to 2007 who produced defensive runs above average (which includes the positional adjustment) within 20 runs of Heywards 61.9 runs above average mark. Upton, Chris Johnson and Andrelton Simmons, and its worth noting that Justin Upton and Heyward too, for that matter will be a free agent after next year, leaving open the possibility that the Braves could move him if the team decides to rebuild. We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The Leaderboards. This group also aged incredibly well. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Heres a bomb to right. Swinging at more off-the-plate pitches, hitting the ball up the elevator shaft, smacking ground balls like a slap-hitting middle infielder none of these are good things. It may sound strange, but in a way Heywards 2011 season is actually a testament to his supreme ability. FanGraphs' Roster Resource has Adrian Sampson in the fifth spot in the rotation, but he has the ability to function as a long reliever/sixth starter if need be. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. Alan Trejo will likely move into the second base spot with Brendan Rodgers on the IL. Perhaps its fitting, if random, that Heywards most recent highlights on MLB.com are all home-run-saving catches. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Theres a pretty good distribution of balls around the field. For one thing, pitchers have shied away from trying to bust Heyward inside, and instead are focusing on trying to get him to chase pitches away. Heyward, as you know, is left-handed, and here is where he hit baseballs between 2014 2015: I dont know what, if anything, stands out right away. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Heywards main drawback, perhaps only drawback, as a player seeking more than $100 million is his lack of power. One spring of spring-training data. Check out the company Heyward kept among under-21 hitters qualifying for the batting title: If youre keeping score at home, there are 13 Hall of Famers and two future first-ballot Hall of Famers on that list of 22 names. Thompson revived his career in Los Angeles last summer, hitting 13 homers with a .901 OPS. With Taylor refocusing on the infield, Roberts suggested he would be less likely to fill the void at center field. Mike Trout represented, perhaps, a belief that we could quantify the other aspects of the game and assign them value. Hes still really young For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. Their average WAR is below. According to Fangraphs, during his first six seasons, Jason Heyward was "worth" $198.1 million. Players are always free to change their minds about anything. His 23 percent infield/fly ball rate is third-highest in the majors, trailing only Corey Patterson and Mark Trumbo. Up for debate is precisely how good Jason Heyward has been during his career, and more importantly for whichever teams signs him this winter, how good Heyward will be moving forward. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Heywards infield hit rate is three percent, which is in the same range as David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero and Billy Butler, guys whose times to first base are measured with sun dials instead of stop watches. On June 3, Higgins recorded his first major league hit, . Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Thats still well above-average, but chasing more junk off the plate certainly isnt a positive sign. Which can be overcome, but only by also hitting fewer grounders. For a big man, he can run a little Games, Puzzles, and Crossword. The games, as you well know, havent mattered yet. Higgins over one inning. Again, the talent is too much to ignore, and the increased contact and stolen bases are encouraging signs for a guy who still has at least a season or two to go before truly entering what should be the peak years of his career. While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. Jason Heyward was a very good baseball player for a very long time. That Aaron Boone batting order is plugged into the Lineup . All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. After the home run, back in the zone with offspeed pitches. Historically, Heyward has hit about 30% of his flies and liners toward left. The lack of power does prevent easy comparison to most free agent mega-deals. It really had good numbers on the computer. Also keep in mind that ZiPS, Bill James and Oliver dont know that Heyward was taking cuts with a bad shoulder last year; they just see a young guy who struggled after a fantastic rookie year. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Limiting Heyward comps solely to free agents leaves little by way of realistic comparison. Consider this an expansion on Matt Klaasens crowning of Jason Heyward as the King oF Little Things if you will. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. rates Jason Heyward as the 28th best fantasy outfielder. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted He homered off former Dodger Andrew Heaney in Wednesdays second inning. Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is understandable why Heywards agents would seek an opt-out clause within the first five years. The line was rough from lefty starter Austin Gomber on Tuesday against the Rangers four runs on five hits, including a Clint Frazier home run, while recording two outs. It happens. I used ten-year figures in this analysis, but moving to an eight- or nine-year contract would not significantly change the values, as the bulk of all production is recorded in the early part of the contract. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. The numbers may seem outrageous, but MLB revenues have been rising at very high rates, and there is so rarely a player of Heywards caliber and age that the market will likely have a difficult time finding a consensus. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Attempting to measure defense with advanced statistics like UZR and DRS has its critics, and attempting to place a value on it can be difficult. ESPN rated the oufielder 11th in the system, Baseball America had him 12th, and The Athletic rated De Paula 18th. Jason Hayward signed an 8-year/$184,000,000 contract with the Chicago Cubs, which includes a $20,000,000 signing bonus, $184,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $23,000,000. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Dodgers 'believe' in Jason Heyward; can swing change revive his career? Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. Despite three home runs in his first five spring at-bats, thats not really part of his game. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. All of this he managed while only stealing 21 bases. Quite obviously, Im lukewarm on Heyward, and his upside might merit a few dollars more, but Id need to see him take a step forward before I start paying for him as a frontline fantasy cornerstone. by Retrosheet. The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. One of the hottest young prospects in baseball right now is Atlanta's Jason Heyward. Sources - Fangraphs, Baseball Savant, MLB.com, Baseball Reference. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. Jason Heyward, who was instrumental in the lore of the infamous Game 7 rain delay, was once the thorn in the side of fans looking for a scapegoat to blame for the club's lack of spending. Teams should, and likely do, look at adding years to a contract as spreading out money over a longer time period rather than seeking an extra year of value. Sadly, the only skill that Heyward hasnt displayed during his bright, brief career is health. Phillies (24th, 1.4 WAR) With Bryce Harper undergoing Tommy John surgery and likely to miss the first half of the season, the spotlight is again on Nick Castellanos, whose performance in the first year of his five-year, $100 million deal was downright dreadful. Gallo got the upper hand on the Red Sox in his second inning at-bat, drawing a walk to nullify Boston's shift. According to Statcast, Walker registered a sprint speed of 28.5 feet per second with 30 feet per second being considered elite-level speed usually reserved for middle infielders and cat-quick centerfielders. 2022 Updated In-Season Projections All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Now, just two years later, weve got Mike Trout and Bryce Harper one-upping them. Ive pulled some images from Baseball Savant. Dodgers outfielder Jason Heyward had glowing praise for manager Dave Roberts, whom he calls a "baseball rat" who loves being around the game. Using FanGraphs approximate current cost of a win at $8 million, the numbers are even bigger. Matt Carpenter was the reverse. When Heyward is Ellsburys age, he will have just finished Year Six, or might have already opted out for another big contract. Tony Conigliaro was unfortunately never the same after a pitch permanently injured him, while other players like Ruben Sierra and Carlos Baerga simply did not produce despite opportunities. 2023 Updated In-Season Projections Dropping down Heywards offense by 20 runs still yields no other results. This is how it usually works with increases in pulled grounders: Its a consequence of taking a more power-centric approach. While Fangraphs weighs his overall contribution at 4.7 WAR for 2013, his UZR/150 (23.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (41) paint a picture of a high-floor player. The Yankees finished second in the majors and first in the American League in 2022 with 4.98 runs scored per game. Others call it a slurve or even a whirlybird. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. While the $330 million figure is likely the one that jumps out, I would direct your attention to the smallest number: $159 million. First, there are questions as to whether Heyward is actually worth as much as the defensive metrics say he is. Injuries happen and players decline unexpectedly. According to FanGraphs, the 26-year-old was worth 6.0 fWAR (FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement) in '15the sixth most WAR among outfielders. And then well see if he wants to stay on the same course. Depending how long Rodgers is out of the lineup and whether the Rockies want to let him continue his preparation into the early days of the regular season someone has to play second. Mark Kotsay did not do well overall, but he was actually averaging around three wins per season from 26 to 30 before having a negative value as his career wound down. And its easy to identify the problem: Observers wish that Heyward would hit for more power. Over 55 combined seasons, the group averaged five wins per season. Gift a Membership. As such, its hard to decide what to make of Heywards 2014 season, in which he finished 34th among outfielders in Zach Sanders rankings, as he made strides as a contact hitter while taking a step back in the power department. But a lot of the value Heyward accumulated last season he did in a fashion that might seem Troutian. Notes: PitchCom, Jason Heyward, cold weather Dodgers pitchers are hesitant to use the PitchCom device to call their own pitches. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as "more than adequate" in the field at center. Over the last four years, he hasnt had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but theres so clearly the potential for so much more than that too few people have come away satisfied. In the *other* MVP debate, Miguel Cabrera represented, perhaps, a belief in the older-school stats, those three fetishized numbers that have been in the newspapers since the games inception. Can you imagine what he would have batted if he had been in the Carolina League or the Pac-12 over the past couple of years? But thats never safe against a hitter like Betts, who launched it deep over the left-center-field wall at Surprise Stadium. Signup . 1 seed Bradley Braves (24-8, 16-4 MVC) square off against the No. Follow/harass him on Twitter @Karl_de_Vries. He flew out to center field in his other at-bat in Friday's game. Bothered by a right shoulder injury that has lingered since spring training and pushed him to the DL in late May, Heyward has yet to reach the double digits in home runs and has drawn criticism from Chipper Jones regarding his ability to play through injuries. Id imagine all those infield popups are at least partly due to his bum shoulder. Heyward managed to nab nine bases in 11 tries last year, and Bill James projects hell have 14 SB in 2012. FanGraphs Membership. How much will he be worth? Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Its ever so early, but it seems like he could be working on that. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. With the injury to Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will see time at shortstop while Jason Heyward and Trayce Thompson will play in center field. If he took the same type of offensive step forward as Carlos Beltran and Reggie Smith, he might win an MVP. Oliver: .273/.367/.475, 19 HR Perhaps rightfully so. . He has played in Major League Baseball (MLB) for the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. Its not so stark there are reasonable arguments to be made for Cabreras dominance at the plate, even if they rely on team- and division-based outcomes in the end but there was some of that bubbling under the surface of the debate. Depending on ones point of view, it was an effort that was either an improvement in his development as a still-young hitter or a disturbing blight on his future value. The hard contact, however, is further reinforcement that some offseason swing changes are paying dividends. Where does all this leave the J-Hey Kid? Jason Heyward isnt Mike Trout. Contract: 8 yr, $184M (2016-23) AAV: $23.0M.